ANALYSIS AND POLICY
- Introduction: Analysis and Leadership
Purpose:
- First 45 minutes of class: course description, requirements, overview; then,
- Using two case studies, discussion of the role of analysis in decision-making and the implications that has for the quality of decisions, the responsibilities of senior policy officials, and civil-military relations.
Elements:
- How, and how much, to relay on the judgments of line organizations
- The appropriate role of resources in decision-making
- The leader’s role: oversight v. advocacy, leadership v. management, referee v. player
- Information and analysis as levers of bureaucratic power
Readings:
- Alain Enthoven and K. Wayne Smith, How Much is Enough, 1971 (republished 2005), p.1-8, 31-47, 60-71, 113-116
- Peter T. Tarpgaard, “McNamara and the Rise of Analysis in Defense Planning,” Naval War College Review, autumn, 1995, p.67-87
- Charles A. Stevenson, SECDEF: The Nearly Impossible Job of Secretary of Defense, 2006, p.3-5, 181-188
Cases (distributed in class): Determining Military Aid for Ukraine, Setting the size of the Army;
2. What is analysis, and how is it done?Purpose: To discuss how analysis works, the process by which it is conducted, and the tradeoffs involved.
Elements: The analysis process dissected – inputs, assumptions, data, model structure, asking the right question ·
- The history of Operations Research/Systems Analysis
- How the process of analysis can affect the outcome
- The relationship between analysts and decisionmakers
- Keeping score – picking the right measures of effectiveness
- How model structure affects the result
Readings:
- E.S. Quade, Analysis for Public Decisions (Third Edition), p.13-97, 127-170 (not on ERes)
- Stockfish, Models, Data and War, GAO, Ch. 2 and Appendix I
- Wagner, Mylander, and Sanders, Naval Operations Analysis, 1997, p.1-24
Case: The United Kingdom’s Strategic Defense Review of 1998 (Readings are from the appendix, Essay 1: “Strategic Defense Review Process” with Annexes A and B, Essay 6: “Future Military Capabilities, with Annexes A and B) in one file on ERes. Full report in ERes and at
http://www.mod.uk/NR/rdonlyres/65F3D7AC-4340-4119-93A2-20825848E50E/0/sdr1998_complete.pdf
3a. Analysis Case Study: Strategic Mobility
Purpose: To apply our discussion of the analysis process to a real world example.
Reading: Robert Ronstadt, The Art of Case Analysis, p.1-22
Joint Publication 4-01 The Defense Transportation System, III-1 – III-19
Case: “Congressionally Mandated Mobility Study (CMMS)” and “CMMS Update”
3b. Communicating in the Bureaucracy/Writing Effective Memos
Purpose: To discuss what makes an effective memo, in preparation for the first paper assignment.
Readings: Perry M. Smith, Assignment Pentagon, (5th edition, 2020), [p.27-82]
Hank Staley, Tongue and Quill, p.21-86 [Not on ERes]
Professor Eliot Cohen, “Some Thoughts on Writing”
Edward Tufte, The Visual Display of Quantitative Information, p.9-51
Optional: The Tongue and Quill, Air Force handbook 33-337, http://static.e-publishing.af.mil/production/1/saf_cio_a6/publication/afh33-337/afh33-337.pdf
ANALYSIS OF CONFLICT
4. Analyzing a CampaignPurpose: To consider the assumptions built into campaign scenarios in models, and their effects on policy and budgets.
Elements:
- Assumptions about campaign structure and their implications
- Decisions about where, who, and how to fight
- Victory conditions and conflict termination
- Warning, deployment, and the outbreak of conflict
- Campaign phases
- Conventional campaigns and counterinsurgency campaigns
- Implications of these assumptions for budgets and force structure
Readings:
- Frostic and Bowie, “Conventional Campaign Analysis of Major Regional Conflicts”, in P. Davis, New Challenges for Defense Planning, RAND, 1994
- Davis, Hillestad and Crawford, “Capabilities for Major Regional Conflicts”, in Khalilzad and Ochmanek, Strategy and Defense Planning for the 21st Century
- Joint Operations, Joint Pub 3-0, 2018, “Termination” I-7, I-8; “Joint Operational Model/Phasing” V-7 – V-14
- Field Manual 3-24 Insurgencies and Counter Insurgencies (2014), p.4-13 – 4-16 and David Galula, Counterinsurgency Warfare – Theory and Practice, Praeger, 1963 p.107-135 (both contained in a single file on ERes)
Exercise: Klingner v. Adams: Alternative Approaches to a Conventional Conflict in Korea
5. Combat Models: What are they and how do they work?
Purpose: to examine the structure, dynamics, and assumptions inside combat models - a non-technical discussion- how these affect outcomes, and how outcomes affect policy
Elements:
- Lanchester's equations made easy
- Firepower scoring
- Campaign combat models
- Rate of advance calculations
- Overview of JICM – a commonly used theater combat model
Readings:
- Lanchester, FW, Aircraft in Warfare, ch. 5 and 6 (“The Principle of Concentration”)
- Lepingwell, J.W.R., “The Laws of Combat? Lanchester Reexamined”, International Security, Summer 1987, p. 89-135
- Michael O’Hanlon, The Science of War, Ch. 2 Modeling Combat and Sizing Forces”, 2009, p.63-85, skim 85-140
- Wm Krondak et al., Unit Combat Power, International Symposium on Military Operational Research, 2007, p.1-11
- Optional: George Akst, “Campaign Modeling”, Military Operations Research Society, March 2013; Trip Barber, “Joint Warfare Analysis”, Military Operations Research Society, March 2014
Exercise (outside class): Simple model of Lanchester attrition laws (on EReserves as Excel file)
Case: Planning the Counteroffensive in Operation Desert Storm (1991)
6. Wartime Operations: Attrition
Purpose: Using a simple mathematical formula, to gain insight into the dynamics of attrition and then to consider their policy implications
Elements:
- The mathematics of attrition
- Applying the mathematics to operational situations and understanding the implications of the result
- Attrition in ground and air combat
- Naval barrier operations
- Air defense intercepts
- Munitions accuracy (CEPs)
Readings:
- D. Rowntree, Probability Without Tears, p. 1-74 [not on ERes]
- Army Ground Forces: The Procurement and Training of Ground Troops, p.181-225
- Williamson Murray Strategy for Defeat: The Luftwaffe 1933-1945 (also, revised version, Luftwaffe) ch. V (optional), VI, Appendix 2 and 3 (p. 209-263, 341-343) [ch. VI on ERes]
- Steven Ambrose, Citizen Soldiers, ch. 11 “Replacements and Reinforcements” (p.273-289)
- Optional: Charles Wheelan, Naked Statistics, Ch.5, “Basic Probability”, p.68-89; Memphis Belle (video)
Case: Recruiting for the Waffen S.S.
7. Force Structure: What do we have, and why do we have it?
Purpose: To discuss why nations maintain armed forces and the factors that shape their design
Elements:
- Review of force structure by service
- Issues in counting – what counts, what does not, and why it makes a difference
- Peacetime v. wartime demands on military forces
- Threats – nations, timelines, weapons
- Forward deployments and rotation bases
- “Tooth-to-tail” – how much combat power, how much support
- Allies and Host Nation Support (HNS)
Readings:
- Adam Talaber, The US Military’s Force Structure: A Primer, Congressional Budget Office, 2021, Summary, p.17-107
- Enthoven and Smith, How Much is Enough?, p. 132-142 in ch. 4 “NATO Strategy and Forces”
- R. Danzig, Driving in the Dark: Ten Propositions about Prediction and National Security, Center for a New American Security, 2011, esp. p.5-17 (on ERes and http://www.cnas.org/drivinginthedark)
- [one reading on the FY 2024 budget and defense strategy, pending publication, TBD]
- Optional: Mark Cancian, Force Structure on the National Defense Strategy, CSIS, https://www.csis.org/analysis/force-structure-national-defense-strategy-highly-capable-smaller-and-less-global
Case: How Many Ships Are in the Chinese Navy?
8a. Force Structure: Designing a Navy
Purpose: To apply in a practical exercise the insights into force structure design from class #7
Readings:
- Review Adam Talaber, The US Military’s Force Structure: A Primer, Congressional Budget Office, 2021, “Department of the Navy,” p.45-79
- CNO Navigation Plan 2022, ADM John Gilday, Chief of Naval Operations, July 2022, esp. p. 9-11, https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/Press-Releases/display-pressreleases/Article/3105576/cno-releases-navigation-plan-2022/
- Optional: Defense Primer: Naval Forces, Congressional Research Service, April 2022, https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10484/22
Exercise: US Navy Force Structure Exercise -- Designing a Navy
WEAPONS ACQUISITION
8b. Weapons Acquisition: How can analysis help us decide what to buy?
Purpose: To discuss how quantitative (and non-quantitative) considerations go into generating requirements for new acquisition systems
Elements:
- Analysis v. politics in setting requirements
- Threat analysis
- Scenario development
- Analysis of alternatives
- Impact of performance specifications
8b. Case: “Trident: Setting the Requirements” (KSG case C15-88-802.0)
Readings:
- David Sorenson, The Process and Politics of Defense Acquisition, 2009. ch. 2 “The Current American Defense Acquisition Process” and ch. 4 “The Politics of American Weapons Acquisition” (p. 28-65, 87-125)
- DOD Instruction 5000.02T, Operation of the Defense Acquisition System (January 2022). Main text, Enclosure (8) “Affordability”, Enclosure (9) “Analyses of Alternatives,” Enclosure (10) “Cost Estimating and Reporting” http://www.dtic.mil/whs/directives/corres/pdf/500002p.pdf
- J. Ronald Fox, Defense Acquisition Reform 1960-2009, 2014, p. 5-33
- Info video of Trident launch on course web site
9. What is cost, and how do we measure it? Purpose: To discuss the different ways to measure cost, the different ways of developing a cost estimate, and how different costing procedures produce different results.
Elements:
- What is cost?
- The purpose and process for developing cost estimates
- Why estimating costs on large military and civilian projects is so difficult
- Types of costs: fly away, unit procurement, total program, life cycle
- Types of estimates: parametric (top-down), work breakdown structure (bottom-up)
- Learning curves; average v. marginal costs; overhead and production rates
Readings:
- GAO, Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide, 2009, ch. 1,2,4 (p.5-25, 31-51)
- E.S. Quade, Analysis for Public Decisions, (Third Edition), p.108-123 (section on cost)
- Defense Management Systems College Teaching Notes
- o “Introduction to Cost Analysis”
- o “Cost Estimating Methodologies”
- “Application of Learning Curve Theory to Systems Acquisition
- GH Fisher, Cost Considerations in Systems Analysis, RAND, 1970, p.120-130
Cases: Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) [specific report TBD]
V-22 Costs – A Debate
10. Cost Growth: What is it and why does it happen
Purpose: To consider what constitutes cost growth, what causes it, and the ethical questions that arise.
Elements
- Defining and measuring cost growth
- Causes of cost growth
- Contract structure and its effect on cost
- Ethical dimensions – when does optimism become, in effect, a lie?
Readings:
- An Analysis of Weapons System Cost Growth, RAND, 1993, p.1-53 [Not on Eres, but at http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2006/MR291.pdf]
- David McNichol, Acquisition Policy, Cost Growth, and Cancellations of Major Defense Acquisition Programs, IDA, 2018, Executive Summary (p. 1-24)
- Norman R. Augustine, Augustine’s Laws, (1997), p.104-124
- Franklin C. Spinney, Defense Facts of Life: The Plans Reality Mismatch, Westview Press, 1985, p.125-168
- Martin Wachs, “Ethics and Advocacy in Forecasting Public Policy”, Business and Professional Ethics Journal, Vol. 9, No. 1 & 2, 1990, p.141-157
- Sissela Bok, Lying: Moral Choice in Public and Private Life, Pantheon, 1978, p.11 (bottom)-16
Exercise: What does a F-35 cost? [Handed out in class #9]
Case: The Big Dig, “Black Hole”, Government Executive, April 2001 w/ excerpts from Dept. of Transportation IG Reports, February 10, 2000, and November 29, 2000; (for background, see www.massdot.state.ma.us/highway/TheBigDig.aspx), Also, “10 years later, did the Big Dig deliver?”, Boston Globe, December 29, 2015
11. Cost-Effectiveness: Using Analysis to Make Tough ChoicesPurpose: To consider the elements of a cost-effectiveness analysis.
Elements: Defining effectiveness quantitatively (static v. dynamic comparisons), equal cost v. equal effectiveness analyses, assumptions imbedded in scenarios, the difficulties in forecasting capabilities, choices in picking Measures of Effectiveness
Readings:
- Garrett and London, Fundamentals of Naval Operations Analysis, 1970, p.161-173, 182-185
- Stockfish, Models, Data and War, p.38-48
- E.S. Quade, A Critique of Cost Effectiveness, 1975, RAND (7 pages)
- David Novic, Concepts of Cost for Use in Studies of Effectiveness, 1957, RAND
Case: UK Trident Alternatives Review of 2013
RESOURCE ALLOCATION
12. Budgets as strategy: Uncovering the policy judgments behind budget numbersPurpose: To consider the defense budget from a variety of financial and historical perspectives and, in doing so, uncover the policy judgments behind the numbers.
Elements:
- Top line budget measures (% of federal budget, % of GDP, current dollar, constant dollar, budget projections)
- Composition of the budget (by function, Major Defense Program, appropriation, service shares)
- Historical trends
- Defense budgets of other nations
- Problems of cross-national fiscal comparisons
- Sector impact
Readings:
- Allan W. Lerner and John Wanat, 1992, Public Administration, Ch. 6 “Public Budgeting”, p.120-144
- Gordon Adams and Cindy Williams, Buying National Security: How America Plans and Pays for Its Global Role and Safety at Home, 2010, ch. 5, “Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution in the Department of Defense,” p. 93-119
- DoD FY 2024 Budget Request Overview, [publication expected Feb 2022]
- [An outside analysis of the FY 2024 if available in time]
- Optional: Defense Management: Primer for Senior Leaders, US Army War College, 2017
Case in class: National Defense Budget Estimates for the FY2024 Budget (DOD Comptroller budget backup data, called the “Green Book” because of its cover), Publication expected March 2023, (Assigned sections will be in one file on ERes, full document at TBD) [ch. 1 (overview, tables 1-2,1-4,1-7), 2-1 (total DOD only), 3-2, 5 (definitions, tables 5-1,5-3,5-4,5-10, 5-11,5-12), 6 (tables 6-1,3,5,16 (last page only),17 (last page only),18 (last page only) 6-25, 6-26), ch. 7 (tables 7-2,7-5).
13. Deciding who does what -- Active duty military, reservists, civilians, and contractorsPurpose: To analyze the characteristics of the four kinds of manpower, their implications for cost and usage, and their resulting effects on national security policy.
Elements:
- Characteristics of the four kinds of manpower: active duty military, reserve military, government civilian, civilian contractor
- Strengths, weaknesses, and policy implications of each type
- Full costing – including retirement, recruiting, allowances, support
- Achieving a balance among the different types of personnel
- Defining “core” governmental activities
Readings (many individual readings but not large in total volume):
Active v. reserve military:
- Comprehensive Review of the Future of the Reserve Component, DoD, 2011, p.15-34
- Commission on the National Guard and Reserves, Final Report, January 31, 2008, p.5-11, 51-87
- Assessing the Army’s Active-Reserve Component Force Mix, Joshua Klimas et al., RAND, 2014
Military v. government civilian
- Replacing Military Personnel in Support Positions With Civilian Employees, Congressional Budget Office, December 2015, p.1-18 https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/51012-Military_Civilian_Mix_1.pdf
Government civilian v. contractors:
- Privatization and the Federal Government: An Introduction, Kevin Kosar, Congressional Research Service, 2006 https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL33777.pdf
Contractors v. military (a single .pdf file on EReserves):
- Department of Defense’s Use of Contractors to Support Military Operations: Background, Analysis, and Issues for Congress, Moshe Schwartz and Jennifer Church, Congressional Research Service, 2013, p.1-14, skim 15-23
- Optional: Logistics Support for Deployed Military Forces, CBO, 2005, p.ix-xvi (summary), p.1-26
Case: Forces for Homeland Security