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SA.510.107 section 01 Syllabus

Impact Evaluation in Development

Course Information

Syllabus Revision: 

Please note that the syllabus may change before or during the class. The most current syllabus is located in Canvas

Course Information: 

Impact Evaluation in Development
SA.510.107.01 ( 4.0 Credits )
Spring 2024 [SA Spring 24]
Description
The goal of this course is to provide students with an introduction to key methods of quantitative policy analysis and impact evaluation used to analyze policy relevant questions in developing countries. We develop the statistical toolkit of regression analysis, reviewing the bivariate regression model and then continuing with multiple regression, and explore how these methods are applied to policy analysis in five benchmark techniques: randomized trials, direct regression analysis, instrumental variables, regression discontinuity, and difference in differences. We emphasize the distinction between regression as a statistical tool and the additional context knowledge (and occasionally assumptions) that are required to address causal policy questions. We will rely on empirical microeconomic studies (mostly in developing countries) to analyze behavior under different types of market failures and to evaluate the impacts of policy interventions.Pre-requisite: Econometrics. Previous knowledge of STATA will be helpful.
Department: SA International Economics and Finance
College: Nitze School of Advanced International Studies

Course Introduction: 

The goal of this course is to provide students with an introduction to key methods of quantitative policy analysis and use this to analyze the constraints that affect households and policy makers in developing countries. We develop the statistical toolkit of regression analysis, reviewing the bivariate regression model and then continuing with multiple regression, and explore how these methods are applied to policy analysis in five benchmark techniques: randomized trials, direct regression analysis, instrumental variables, regression discontinuity, and difference in differences. We emphasize the distinction between regression as a statistical tool and the additional context knowledge (and occasionally assumptions) that are required to address causal policy questions. We will rely on empirical microeconomic studies to analyze behavior under different types of market failures and to evaluate the impacts of policy interventions.

Instructor Information: 

Instructor

Additional Instructor Information and Office Hours: 

Office Hours and Teaching Assistant

  • Thu – 9.30-11.30 am, or by appointment
    • o Zoom meeting id: 202 249 7307
    • o Link: https://jh.zoom.us/j/2022497307

Course Schedule: 
Spring 2024 [Spring 2024]
Term Start Date: Wednesday, 3-Jan-2024  Term End Date: Saturday, 15-Jun-2024
Location and Schedule:  
Schedule Detail: [01-22-2024 to 04-27-2024, T 02:45 PM - 05:15 PM; Washington DC, 555 Penn 656]
CRN: SA.510.107.01.SA Spring 24

Course Learning Objectives

Course Learning Objectives (CLOs): 

No Course Learning Outcomes are available for this course.

Required Text and Other Materials

Books: 

We will use the following textbook:
Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J. S. (2014). Mastering 'Metrics: The Path from Cause to Effect. Princeton University Press.

In addition, for background readings, which go over econometric concepts in more detail: Stock, J. & Watson, M. Introduction to Econometrics. Pearson Education. (SW)

Evaluation and Grading

Grading Breakdown: 

• There will be a weight of 25% each for problem sets, presentations, midterm, and finals

Grading Scale: 

 

Description of Major Assignments

Description of Major Assignments: 

  • There will be 4 problem sets in total and will require extensive use of Stata.
  • Due dates: PS1 (Feb 16), PS2 (March 1), PS3 (March 22), PS4 (Apr 26) [Changes to these dates will be announced in class and on Blackboard]
  • There will be one midterm – March 12 [CLOSED BOOK]
  • There will be a final exam – (either last day of class or finals week)
  • There will be bi-weekly presentations (in groups of 4). The list of papers is below and I will assign them to groups in class.

Course Schedule

Course Schedule Outline: 

Regression Review & Omitted Variables Bias

Mastering ‘Metrics, Sections 2.1-2.3

Stock and Watson 4.1-4.3: Regression Introduction Stock and Watson 5.1-5.3: Regression with a Single Covariate Stock and Watson 6.1-6.2: Omitted Variables Bias & Multiple Regression Model

Randomized trials

MM, Chapter 1.

Bertrand, Marianne, and Sendhil Mullainathan. 2004. “Are Emily and Greg More Employable than Lakisha and Jamal? A Field Experiment on Labor Market Discrimination,” American Economic Review, Volume 94, Number 4 (2004), pp. 991-1013

Marianne Bertrand, Simeon Djankov, Rema Hanna, Sendhil Mullainathan. 2007 “Obtaining a Driver's License in India: An Experimental Approach to Studying Corruption”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 122, Issue 4, 1 November 2007, Pages 1639–1676,

 

Randomized trials [presentations] Cash versus conditional transfers

*Sarah Baird, Craig McIntosh, Berk Özler. 2011. “Cash or Condition? Evidence from a Cash Transfer Experiment”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 126, Issue 4, 1 November 2011, Pages 1709–1753

*Johannes Haushofer, Jeremy Shapiro. 2016. “The Short-term Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers to the Poor: Experimental Evidence from Kenya”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 131, Issue 4, 1 November 2016, Pages 1973–2042

*Christopher Blattman, Nathan Fiala, Sebastian Martinez. 2014. “Generating Skilled Self-Employment in Developing Countries: Experimental Evidence from Uganda”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 129, Issue 2, 1 May 2014, Pages 697–752

 *Dennis Egger, Johannes Haushofer, Edward Miguel, Paul Niehaus and Michael Walker (2019). “General equilibrium effects of cash transfers: experimental evidence from Kenya” *Handa, S., Natali, L., Seidenfeld, D., Tembo, G., Davis, B., & Zambia Cash Transfer Evaluation Study Team. (2018). Can unconditional cash transfers raise long-term living standards? Evidence from Zambia. Journal of Development Economics, 133, 42-65. Cunha, Jesse M, Giacomo De Giorgi, and Seema Jayachandran, “The Price Effects of Cash                     Versus In-Kind Transfers,” The Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming. 

Andrew Zeitlin and Craig McIntosh, 2019. “Benchmarking a child nutrition program against cash: Experimental evidence from Rwanda”

Muralidharan, Karthik, and Venkatesh Sundararaman. 2011. “Teacher Performance Pay: Experimental Evidence from India.” Journal of Political Economy, vol. 119, no. 1, 2011, pp. 39–77

Joppe de Ree, Karthik Muralidharan, Menno Pradhan, Halsey Rogers. 2017. “Double for Nothing? Experimental Evidence on an Unconditional Teacher Salary Increase in Indonesia”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics

 

Instrumental variables

MM, Chapter 3.

SW, Chapter 12.

Benjamin Faber. 2014 “Trade Integration, Market Size, and Industrialization: Evidence from China's National Trunk Highway System”, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 81, Issue 3, 1 July 2014, Pages 1046–1070

Esther Duflo, Rohini Pande. 2007. “Dams”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 122, Issue 2, 1 May 2007, Pages 601–646

Dinkelman, Taryn. 2011. "The Effects of Rural Electrification on Employment: New Evidence from South Africa." American Economic Review, 101(7): 3078-3108

Burgess, Robin, and Rohini Pande. 2005. "Do Rural Banks Matter? Evidence from the Indian Social Banking Experiment." American Economic Review, 95(3): 780-795.

 

Instrumental variables – shift-share [presentations]

*Leah Platt Boustan, “Was Postwar Suburbanization “White Flight”? Evidence from the Black Migration,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 125, Issue 1, February 2010, Pages 417–443.

*Autor, David H., David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson. 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States." American Economic Review, 103 (6): 2121-68.

*Acemoglu, Daron., and Pascual Restrepo. 2019. “Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US local labor markets.” Journal of Political Economy (forthcoming)

*Nunn, Nathan, and Nancy Qian. 2014. "US Food Aid and Civil Conflict." American Economic Review, 104 (6): 1630-66.

*Kearney, Melissa S., and Phillip B. Levine. 2015. "Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV's 16 and Pregnant on Teen Childbearing." American Economic Review, 105 (12): 3597-3632.

Banerjee, Abhijit, and Lakshmi Iyer. 2005. "History, Institutions, and Economic Performance: The Legacy of Colonial Land Tenure Systems in India." American Economic Review, 95(4): 1190-1213.

Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., & Sergenti, E. (2004). Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach. Journal of Political Economy, 112(4), 725-753. 

Nunn Nathan, Wantchekon Leonard. 2011. “The Slave Trade and the Origins of Mistrust in Africa”. American Economic Review. 2011;101 (7) :3221-3252.

Feyrer, James D., and Bruce Sacerdote. 2009. “Colonialism and Modern Income: Islands as Natural Experiments,” Review of Economics and Statistics 91(2), 245-262

Alesina A, Giuliano P, Nunn N. 2013. “On the Origins of Gender Roles: Women and the Plough”. Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2013;128 (2) :469-530.

Di Tella, R., & Schargrodsky, E. (2013). Criminal Recidivism after Prison and Electronic Monitoring. Journal of Political Economy,121(1), 28-73.

ANGRIST, JOSHUA D., and WILLIAM N. EVANS. "Children and Their Parents' Labor Supply: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size." The American Economic Review 88, no. 3 (1998): 450-477.

Joshua D. Angrist, Alan B. Keueger; Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 106, Issue 4, 1 November 1991, Pages 979–1014

 


Regression Discontinuity Design

MM, Chapter 4.

SW, Chapter 13.4

Lee, David S., and Thomas Lemieux. 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics." Journal of Economic Literature, 48(2): 281-355.

Regression Discontinuity Design [presentations]

Poz-Eleches, Cristian, and Miguel Urquiola. 2013. "Going to a Better School: Effects and Behavioral Responses."American Economic Review, 103(4): 1289-1324.

Ofer Malamud, Cristian Pop-Eleches. 2011. “Home Computer Use and the Development of Human Capital”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 126, Issue 2, 1 May 2011, Pages 987–1027 

Manacorda, Marco, Edward Miguel, and Andrea Vigorito. 2011. "Government Transfers and Political Support."American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 3(3): 1-28.

Pinotti, Paolo. 2017. "Clicking on Heaven's Door: The Effect of Immigrant Legalization on Crime." American Economic Review, 107 (1): 138-68.

*Kazianga, Harounan, Dan Levy, Leigh L. Linden, and Matt Sloan. 2013. "The Effects of "Girl-Friendly" Schools: Evidence from the BRIGHT School Construction Program in Burkina Faso." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 5 (3): 41-62.

Lucas, Adrienne M., and Isaac M. Mbiti. 2014. "Effects of School Quality on Student Achievement: Discontinuity Evidence from Kenya." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 6 (3): 234-63.

Asher, Sam, and Paul Novosad. 2017. "Politics and Local Economic Growth: Evidence from India." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 9 (1): 229-73.

Dell M. 2010. “The Persistent Effects of Peru's Mining Mita”. Econometrica. 2010;78 (6), 1863-1903.

Dell M, Lane N, Querubin P. 2017. “The Historical State, Local Collective Action, and Economic Development in Vietnam”. Working Paper.

 

RD papers for presentation (2023)

  1. Rural Infrastructure Development and Economic Activity (Chaurey, Ritam and Duong Le, 2021, working paper)
  2. Out of the darkness and into the light? Development Effects of Rural Electrification (Burlig, Fiona and Louis Preonas, 2022, working paper)
  3. Rural Roads and Local Economic Development (Asher, Sam and Paul Novosad, 2020, AER)
  4. Place-Based Policies and Migration (Abeberese, Ama, Ritam Chaurey, and Radhika Menon, 2022, working paper)
  5. Fracking, farmers, and rural electrification in India. (Fetter, T. Robert, and Faraz Usmani, 2020, working paper)

Difference-in-Differences

MM, Chapter 5.

Chaurey, Ritam. 2017. “Location-Based Tax Incentives: Evidence from India.”

Journal of Public Economics, vol. 156: 101-120

Difference-in-Differences [presentations]

Oeindrila Dube, Juan F. Vargas. 2013. “Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia”, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 80, Issue 4, 1 October 2013, Pages 1384–1421

Robert Jensen, Emily Oster; The Power of TV: Cable Television and Women's Status in India, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 124, Issue 3, 1 August 2009, Pages 1057–1094,

La Ferrara, Eliana, Alberto Chong, and Suzanne Duryea. 2012. "Soap Operas and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 4(4): 1-31.

Banerjee, Abhijit, Duflo, Esther, Postel-Vinay, Gilles and Watts, Tim. 2010. “Long-Run Health Impacts of Income Shocks: Wine and Phylloxera in Nineteenth-Century France”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92, issue 4, p. 714-728.

Erica Field. 2007. “Entitled to Work: Urban Property Rights and Labor Supply in Peru”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 122, Issue 4, 1 November 2007, Pages 1561–1602,

Davide Cantoni, Yuyu Chen, David Y. Yang, Noam Yuchtman, and Y. Jane Zhang. 2017."Curriculum and Ideology," Journal of Political Economy 125, no. 2 (April 2017): 338-392.

Nancy Qian. 2008. "Missing Women and the Price of Tea in China: The Effect of Sex-Specific Earnings on Sex Imbalance." The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 123, Issue 3, August 2008, Pages 1251–1285.

Esther Duflo. 2001. "Schooling and Labor Market Consequences of School Construction in Indonesia: Evidence from an Unusual Policy Experiment." American Economic Review, 91 (4): 795-813.

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