Week 1, August 27
Introduction to FP Decision-Making Approaches
Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979). Read Chapter 4 on “Reductionist and Systemic Theories.”
Margaret Hermann and Joe Hagan, “International Decision Making: Leadership Matters,” Foreign Policy, No. 110, 1998.
Dan Spokojvny, “What Is Expertise? Let’s Ask the Experts,” FP21.org, 20 March 2024: https://www.fp21.org/publications/what-is-expertise.
Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein, Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth and Happiness, Chapter 1.
Elizabeth Saunders, "Eight Questions About Donald Trump's Decision-Making in a Foreign Policy Crisis," Washington Post (Monkey Cage blog), 21 December 2016.
Thomas Leo Scherer, Lauren Van Metre, and Analise Schmidt, “Raiding the Ivory Tower: How to Seek Academic Research Like an Expert,” FP21.org, 22 February 2024: https://www.fp21.org/publications/how-to-seek-academic-research-like-an-expert.
Week 2, September 3
Rethinking the Unitary Actor: Bureaucratic and Domestic Politics
Graham Allison and Morton Halperin, “Bureaucratic Politics: A Paradigm and Some Policy Implications,” World Politics, Vol. 24, 1972.
Morton Halperin, “The Decision to Deploy the ABM: Bureaucratic and Domestic Politics in the Johnson Administration,” World Politics, Vol. 25, October 1977.
Kevin Marsh, “Obama’s Surge: A Bureaucratic Politics Analysis of the Decision to Order a Troop Surge in the Afghanistan War,” Foreign Policy Analysis, Vol. 10, No. 3, 2014.
Sibel Oktay, “Chamber of Opportunities: Legislative Politics and Coalition Security Policy,” British Journal of Politics and International Relations, Vol. 20, No. 2, 2018.
Lisel Hintz and David E. Banks, “Symbolic Amplification and Suboptimal Weapons Procurement: Explaining Turkey’s S-400 Program,” Security Studies, Vol. 31, No. 5, 2022.
Week 3, September 10
Rethinking the Blackboxed Actor: Organizational Culture, Ideology, Regime Type
Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (Second edition, 1999), Chapter 3.
Milo Jones and Philippe Silberzahn. Constructing Cassandra: Reframing Intelligence Failure at the CIA 1947-2001 (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2013), Chapters 1 and 2.
Amy Zegart, “9/11and the FBI: The Organizational Roots of Failure,” Intelligence and National Security, Vol 22, No. 2, 2007.
Kimberly Marten, “The ‘KGB State’ and Russian Political and Foreign Policy Culture,” Journal of Slavic Military Studies, Vol. 30, No. 2, 2017.
Daniel Wajner, “Exploring the Foreign Policies of Populist Governments: (Latin) America First,” Journal of International Relations and Development, Vol. 24, No. 3, 2021.
Week 4, September 17
Rethinking the Rational Actor: Bounded Rationality
Herbert Simon, "Human Nature in Politics: The Dialogue of Psychology with Political Science," American Political Science Review 79 (1985): 293-304.
Bryan Jones, “Bounded Rationality,” Annual Review of Political Science 2 (June 1999), pp. 297-321.
Gerd Gigerenzer and Daniel G. Goldstein, “Reasoning the Fast and Frugal Way: Models of Bounded Rationality,” Psychological Review 103 (1996), pp. 650-69.
Rose McDermott, “Feeling of Rationality: The Meaning of Neuroscientific Advances for Political Science,” Perspective on Politics (Dec 2004): 691-706.
Filipa Figueria and Benjamin Martill, “Bounded Rationality and the Brexit Negotiations: Why Britain Failed to Understand the EU,” Journal of European Public Policy, Vol. 28, No. 12, 2021.
Week 5, September 24
Perception and Misperception in Decision-Making: Heuristics and Biases
Re-skim Nudge, Ch.1 from Week 1.
Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976), Chapters 1 and 4.
Jack Levy, “Political Psychology and Foreign Policy,” in D. O. Sears, L. Huddy, and R. Jervis (eds) Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology (New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 2003).
Justin Kruger & David Dunning, “Unskilled and Unaware of it: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 77, No. 6, 1999.
Jeanette Morehouse Mendez and Tracy Osborn, “Gender and the Perception of Knowledge in Political Discussion,” Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 63, No. 2, 2010.
Daniel Kahneman and Jonathan Renshon, “Why Hawks Win,” Foreign Policy, Jan/Feb 2007.
Ellice Huang, “Can You Change Your Mind? Decision-Making and the Debate on AI Regulation,” FP21.org, 17 April 2024: https://www.fp21.org/publications/decision-making-and-ai-regulation.
Week 6, October 1
Groupthink Processes and Effects
Irving Janis, Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes, 2nd ed., (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1982), Chapters 3, 8, 10, 11. NOTE: Read Chapter 8 first.
Steve Smith, “Groupthink and the Hostage Rescue Mission,” British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 15, No. 1, 1985.
Steve Yetiv, “Groupthink and the Gulf Crisis,” British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 33, 2003.
Week 7, October 8
Prospect Theory, Framing, and Loss Aversion
Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, “Choices, Values, and Frames,” American Psychologist, Vol. 39, No. 4, 1984.
Daniel Kahneman, Jack L. Knetsch, and Richard H. Thaler, “The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 5, No. 1, 1991.
Barbara Farnham, “Roosevelt and the Munich Crisis: Insights from Prospect Theory,” Political Psychology, Vol. 13, No. 2, 1992.
Rose McDermott, “Prospect Theory in International Relations: The Iranian Hostage Rescue Mission,” in Barbara Farnham (ed) Avoiding Losses/Taking Risks: Prospect Theory in International Conflict (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1994).
Luis Schenoni, Sean Braniff, and Jorge Battaglino, “Was the Malvinas/Falklands a Diversionary War? A Prospect-Theory Reinterpretation of Argentina’s Decline,” Security Studies, Vol. 29, No. 1, 2020.
Adam Lenton, “Why Didn’t Ukraine Fight for Crimea? Evidence from Declassified National Security and Defense Council Proceedings,” Problems of Post-Communism, Vol. 69. No. 2, 2022.
Week 8, October 15 (Group Exercise on US Syria Policy)
Learning from Our Mistakes? Or Learning the Wrong Lessons?
Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976), Ch. 6.
Philip Tetlock, “Learning in US and Soviet Foreign Policy: In Search of an Elusive Concept,” in Philip Tetlock (ed.) Learning in US and Soviet Foreign Policy (Routledge, 2019).
Yuen Foong Khong, Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992), Chapters 1 and 2.
Stephen Dyson and Thomas Preston, “Individual Characteristics of Political Leaders and the Use of Analogy in Foreign Policy Decision Making,” Political Psychology, Vol. 27, No. 2, 2006.
Ben Rhodes, “Inside the White House During the Syria ‘Red Line’ Crisis,” The Atlantic, 3 June 2018.
Week 9, October 22
Who Leads Matters I: Beliefs and Cognitive Structures
Re-skim Hermann and Hagan from Week 1, “Leadership Matters.”
Jonathan Renshon, “Stability and Change in Belief Systems: The Operational Code of George W. Bush,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 52, No. 6, 2008.
Janice Gross Stein, “Political Learning by Doing: Gorbachev as Uncommitted Thinker and Motivated Learner,” International Organization, Vol. 48, No. 2, 1994.
Elizabeth N. Saunders, “Transformative Choices: Leaders and the Origins of Intervention Strategy,” International Security, Vol. 34, No. 2, 2009.
Stephen Dyson, “Cognitive Style and Foreign Policy: Margaret Thatcher’s Black-and-White Thinking,” International Political Science Review, Vol. 30, No. 1, 2009.
Jonathan Keller, “Constraint Respecters, Constraint Challengers, and Crisis Decision-Making in Democracies: A Case Study of Analysis of Kennedy versus Reagan,” Political Psychology, Vol. 26, No. 6, 2005.
Week 10, October 29
Who Leads Matters II: Personality and Leadership Style
Thomas Preston, “The President’s Inner Circle: Personality and Leadership Style in Foreign policy Decision-Making,” Ch. 7 in Presidential Power, 2000.
Maryann Gallagher and Susan Allen, “Presidential Personality: Not Just a Nuisance,” Foreign Policy Analysis, Vol. 10, No. 1, 2014.
Dan McAdams, “The Mind of Donald Trump,” The Atlantic, June 2016: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/06/the-mind-of-donald-trump/480771/.
Consuelo Thiers and Leslie Wehner, “The Personality Traits of Populist Leaders and Their Foreign Policies: Hugo Chavez and Donald Trump,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 66, No. 2022.
Shin Yon Kim, “Presidential Personality and Foreign Policy Decision-Making: The Sunshine Policy under Kim Dae-Jong,” Pacific Affairs, Vol. 96, No. 3, 2023.
Stephen Dyson, “Personality and Foreign Policy: Tony Blair’s Iraq Decisions,” Foreign Policy Analysis, Vol. 2, No. 3, 2006.
Week 11, November 5
Who Leads Matters, Interrupted: FPDM in the AI and Autonomous Tech Era
Zed Tarar, “An AI Primer for Policy Professionals,” The Foreign Policy Journal, June 2024: https://afsa.org/ai-primer-policy-professionals.
Evanna Hu, “AI Disruption and Responsible Use in Diplomacy,” The Foreign Policy Journal, June 2024: https://afsa.org/ai-disruption-and-responsible-use-diplomacy.
Paula Osborn, “Toward Data-Informed Multilateral Diplomacy,” The Foreign Policy Journal, June 2024: https://afsa.org/toward-data-informed-multilateral-diplomacy.
James Johnson, “Delegating Strategic Decision-Making to Machines: Dr. Strangelove Redux?” Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 45, No. 3, 2022.
Erik Lin-Greenberg, “Allies and Artificial Intelligence: Obstacles to Operations and Decision-Making,” Texas National Security Review, Vol. 3, No. 2, 2020.
Michael Horowitz and Lauren Kahn, “Bending the Automation Bias Curve: A Study of Human- and AI-Based Decision Making in National Security Contexts, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 68, No. 2, 2024.
Jacquelyn Schneider and Julia Macdonald, “Why Troops Don’t Trust Drones,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 20, 2017.
Week 12, November 12
Roles and Identities in FPDM
Muzafer Sherif, “Experiments in Group Conflict,” Scientific American, Vol. 195, 5, 1956.
Amy Catalinac, “Identity Theory and Foreign Policy: Explaining Japan’s Responses to the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 US War in Iraq,” Politics and Policy, Vol. 35, No. 1, 2007.
Lisel Hintz, “‘Take It Outside!’ National Identity Contestation in the Foreign Policy Arena,” European Journal of International Relations, Vol. 22, No. 2, 2016.
Kornely Kakachia and Salome Minesasvhili, “Identity Politics: Exploring Georgian Foreign Policy Behavior,” Journal of Eurasian Studies, Vol. 6, No. 2, 2015.
Catarina Kinnvall, “Populism, Ontological Insecurity, and Hindutva: Modi and the Masculinization of Indian Politics,” in Ontological Insecurities and the Politics of Contemporary Populism, 2023.
Sylvia Bashevkin, “Introduction,” Women as Foreign Policy Leaders: National Security and Gender Politics in Superpower America (Oxford University Press, 2018).
Week 13, November 19
Testing Your Knowledge: Iraq 2003 Case Study Workshop
NOTE: Ahead of group presentations, students will prepare one and skim two of these articles
Andrew Flibbert, “The Road to Baghdad: Ideas and Intellectuals in Explanations of the Iraq War,” Security Studies, Vol. 15, 2006.
Chaim Kaufmann, “Threat Inflation and the Failure of the Marketplace of Ideas: The Selling of the Iraq War,” International Security, Vol. 29, Summer 2004.
David Patrick Houghton, “Invading and Occupying Iraq: Some Insights from Political Psychology,” Peace and Conflict, Vol. 14, 2008.
Steve Yetiv, “The Invasion of Iraq: A War of Overconfidence,” Ch. 4 in National Security through a Cockeyed Lens (Baltimore, MD: JHU Press, 2013).
David Mitchell and Tansa George Massoud, “Anatomy of Failure: Bush’s Decision-Making Process and the Iraq War,” Foreign Policy Analysis, Vol. 5, 2009.
Andrew Payne, “Presidents, Politics, and Military Strategy: Electoral Constraints During the Iraq War,” International Security, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2020.
Dina Badie, “Groupthink, Iraq, and the War on Terror: Explaining US Policy Shift Toward Iraq,” Foreign Policy Analysis, Vol. 6, No. 4, 2010.
Final projects due Sunday December 8 by 10pm ET